Buying Hook is a Good Strategy in Certain Situations in Sports Betting
Learn when you should be buying the hook in sports betting and it could be profitable. Many sports bettors always buy the hook, but it shouldn’t be done unless it is in certain situations or not done at all. The NFL and NBA matters more than in college sports.
Sports Bettors also have to know key numbers in which to buy on or off of.
Key Points
– Buying the hook off of NFL key numbers may not lead to the results a bettor wants.
– Buying the hook as a strategy is similar to betting parlays.
How Often Does Buying the Hook Matter
For those unaware, the hook refers to the half-point in sports betting. Very often in betting, bettors will see point spreads in increments of a half-point.
A team may be favored by 3.5 points, for example, in an NFL game. The half-point there is the hook. If you know how to bet the NFL, a team favored by 3.5 points wins and covers when the team wins by 3 or less.
There are instances where bettors “buy the hook” in an attempt to increase their chances of winning a bet. There are cases where buying the hook makes a difference. Also those where it doesn’t make sense.
That is the focus of this post.
Buying the Hook Example
Both the Los Angeles Chargers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were victorious despite being 3-point underdogs in their respective games during Week 9 of the 2022 NFL season.
Bettors who had placed money on the Chargers and Buccaneers were disappointed with the outcomes of their wagers due to the fact that both teams won by a margin of three points.
In the National Football League, the most common margin of victory is three points. Approximately one-quarter of all NFL games finish with a scoring margin of either three or seven points. Knowing these scoring margins also helps in betting football totals.
Betting on a three-point favorite that wins by three points is obviously a push, which is about as fun as kissing your sister. Bettors should try to avoid this situation at all costs. It raises a question that many people have. Should you buy the hook, particularly when buying off of key numbers such as 3 and 7?
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The Case for Buying the Hook
A bettor who does their homework on a game might discover that a team like Tampa Bay, which is playing at home against the Rams, offers good value.
The bettor is aware of the fact that since 1995, 15.2 percent of NFL games have ended with a margin of three points or less, and the spread for this game is the Buccaneers -3.
In the end, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers prevailed over the Los Angeles Rams by a score of 16-13 during Week 9 of the 2022 NFL season. It goes without saying that buying the hook would have turned a tie in this case into a win.
This is an online football betting situation in which it most certainly would have made sense to purchase the extra half-point as long as the odds made sense.
The Argument Against Buying the Hook
Consider the bettor taking Tampa Bay -3. He would have received odds of -110. If the Bucs win and cover, the bettor who wagers $10, wins $9.09. The total payout including the stake is $19.09.
Now, if the bettor wishes to buy the hook, he will have to pay a fee to do so. In the case of the Bucs’ bettor, buying the hook to take the spread to -3.5 will cost -125.
At those odds, the $10 bettor wins $8 for a total payout of $18. You can see how purchasing the extra half-point affects the payout.
In the grand scheme of sports betting, bettors usually pay 10 cents to move a point spread one half-point. In football, because key numbers like 3 and 7 exist, sportsbooks can charge a little more to move off of those numbers.
Make sure you find a cost-effective sportsbook where buying the hook makes sense.
Most sportsbooks will charge between 15 and 25 cents to buy a half-point off of a key number. That brings us to the issue that long-term bettors face when it comes to consistently buying the hook.
Is Buying the Hook in Your Best Interest
Too often, amateur bettors should take the points, but they don’t. That’s an issue for another day. Right now, the question is whether or not buying the hook will make a difference in your betting. Take into account the points that follow.
Since 2003, all -3 NFL favorites have gone 287-316-61 ATS (47.6%). Keep in mind that in order to break even, you need to win 52.38 percent of the time.
Now, if you had just bought the half-point on each of those games, the 61 games that ended in a push would have turned into wins against the spread (ATS). You would have successfully increased your winning percentage all the way up to 52.4% (348-316).
That looks awesome, doesn’t it? The issue is that you are paying additional juice for that half-point, which is problematic. The normal charge for the juice on a half-point of a key number such as three is twenty-five cents.
This indicates that you had to pay a total of -135 to convert those 61 pushes to wins. In order to turn a profit when betting against the house at odds of -135, you need to win more than 57.5% of the time.
As one can see, purchasing a half-point can actually result in a lower return on your investment.
Since 2003, if you had taken the five most common margins of victory in the NFL – 3, 4, 6, 7, and 10 – and bought a half-point on each game, you would have racked up more betting wins, but you would have lost approximately 19 units.
It’s similar to having to pay fees at an ATM. You continue to be charged fees to withdraw your own money. You might start to wonder what happened to your bank account after some time has passed.
Protect yourself from outrageous fees with a quality online betting portal.
When it comes down to it, buying points off of key numbers in the NFL probably works the same way as betting on NFL parlays. It is not a consistent strategy for the long term, but it is something that you might think about doing from time to time.
