Did the New England Patriots figure to be leading the AFC East at this point in time? Well, this reporter thought they might overcome the Buffalo Bills in the division this season, which is why I put a futures bet down on them. But I did that on the off-chance of this or that happening.
Well, as BetAnySports customers know by now, “this or that” has happened. And Bill Belichick has maneuvered his team to a spot where, at the very least, they are in pretty good playoff position.
And he has done it with a rookie quarterback at the helm.
Not just any rookie quarterback, either. Mac Jones may have lasted a while in the first round, but don’t forget that Belichick and Nick Saban have a relationship that goes way back, so he got about as thorough a report on him as can be imagined.
Jones was also considered perhaps the most “NFL-ready” QB available, and he has proven to be just that.
Now, before we go any further, let’s concede some things. One is that New England was a pretty good landing spot for him, since there is the infrastructure in place whereby Jones would have to do too much, too soon. And the other rookie quarterbacks, like Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields and Zach Wilson and (God knows) Davis Mills were going into much more distressed situations.
Jones also benefits from a defense that has allowed the fewest points per game in the NFL. The Patriots have outscored their opponents by 146 points this season.
He did not come in as the “savior” or the “QB of the future” necessarily, but as someone who might ease into the job, and a big improvement over Cam Newton, who wasn’t much of a passing threat last season.
But now we are coming down to the nitty-gritty, and Monday night’s winner will be the leader of the division. The Pats are 8-4, both straight-up and against the spread, while the Bills are 7-4, both SU and ATS.
In the Monday Night Football odds posted at BetAnySports, Buffalo is the favorite at what is now known as Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY, the Bills are favored:
Buffalo Bills -3 (+100)
New England Patriots +3 (-120)
Over 40.5 points -110
Under 40.5 points -110
And don’t forget that during the game, you can place real-time wagers using Ultimate Lines, Premier Lines or Super Lines!
I would say that although I was bullish on the Pats at the start and have been bullish on them all season, I am not sure that this particular game represents the best situation for them.
For one thing, this may turn out to be a case where Jones has to do more than intended. Buffalo can play well against the run; they are ranked third in the metric of “Adjusted Line Yards” as well as the “stuff rate,” which indicates how frequently they are able to stop a run play at or behind the line of scrimmage.
At the same time, their defense leads the NFL not only in completion percentage to opposing quarterback, but also yards allowed per pass attempt – a minuscule 5.3. And they give up just 9.3 yards per completion (3rd best).
What this means is that Jones may have to deal with longer down-and-distance situations than he intends, and may not experience as much profit with the short passing game.
And that will make things difficult for the Pats’ offense overall.
Unquestionably, the Bills have had some lapses, where it looked like they might have fallen asleep – against Indianapolis a couple of weeks ago, and against Jacksonville certainly. But it’s hard to downplay a team that is first in the league in NET yards and points on a per-drive basis.
When it comes to converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns, New England is 24th in the league in that category, and the Pats will have to do better than that to have a chance.
In this specific game, with more familiar weather, I’m going to side with the Bills.
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