Football is the most popular betting market in the world. Players around the globe place thousands of wagers on various football events. However, do you know the expected value in football betting?
Finding value is a priority when it comes to wagering. There are several ways to get an advantage over a sportsbook. However, none of them can be effective in the long run if they don’t provide value.
The formula for value is:
(Amount won for each bet x probability of winning) – (Amount lost for each bet x probability of losing)
The best way to show how to apply the formula is through coin toss because it only has two possible results. Thus, the odds of one occurring are 50 percent. However, their expected value or EV is zero for both outcomes. Therefore, the results of infinite coin tosses will only cancel each other as per the big number theory.
Expected Value in Football Betting
When you bet on volleyball or football, you can use the expected value to get the advantage over the bookie. To do so, you should use the formula:
EV = (Opening odds/Closing odds) – 1
It would be best to assume that the opening odds contain a more significant share of bookie’s mistake. On the other hand, the closing odds are the validated price. Therefore, it will be closer to the true odds than the initial sports betting predictions.
It is safe to assume that the difference between opening and closing odds is the actual expected value. However, it is not always correct that either the opening or closing odds are correct or incorrect. According to Global Gambling experts, the difference between the two is an estimate of the potential EV.
You can calculate the EV to find a positive expected value in football better. Also, it would help if you estimated the share of positive expected value odds. Finally, you can use the overview for your future wagers.
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