Win more betting football totals.
Key Points in betting football totals are very simple, but can’t be taken for granted as many things can cause things to change and gamblers have to adapt. Understanding key numbers is important in betting NFL totals. Wind is a huge factor in betting football totals.
Betting Football Totals
For bettors who know what they’re doing, placing a wager on football total odds can be quite beneficial. Even experienced bettors frequently wager on game totals for both NFL and college football games.
Why not win more often than you lose, regardless of whether you are an experienced player or just a recreational bettor?
While you’re at it, why not win more bets on the NFL MVP?
How the Bet Works
Even if you completely understand totals bets, here’s a recap of how these bets work. Bettors are not attempting to predict the exact total or final score of a football game. They are predicting whether the final score will go Over or Under a point total established by oddsmakers.
The outcome of the game – who wins and loses – is also of no concern. It’s only the final combined score of the two teams that matters. An example better explains how these bets work.
Prior to a game, oddsmakers have established a game total to be 50. A bettor predicts that the two teams will combine to score more than 50 points. The bettor wagers on the Over. If the final score of the game is 28-24 (a total of 52 points), the bettor is a winner.
If the final score was 27-23, the result would be what’s called a Push. A Push means that no one wins the bet because the final score landed directly on the oddsmakers’ total. All bets are refunded. This is why many football totals are set in units of 0.5. Football teams cannot score a half-point.
BETTORS DON’T FORGET – LINE SHOPPING IS A MUST!
Betting Football Totals – NFL Key Numbers
Understanding NFL key numbers is the first step in developing any strategy in betting football totals. In NFL games, the scoring is more consistent. Field goals are worth three points, touchdowns six points, and NFL teams don’t try as many two-point conversions as college teams do.
As a result, certain final scores are more common than others. A total of 3.82 percent of NFL games end with a score of 41. The next two most common final scores are 40 (3.75%) and 51 (3.67%). If you look at the top ten NFL totals – 41, 40, 51, 47, 44, 43, 50, 55, 33, and 37 – all of them occur at least three percent of the time.
About 40 percent of all games end with a final score that lands on one of those 10 numbers. Roughly 15 percent of games end between 40 and 44 total points. This information is extremely valuable when betting NFL totals at your trusted sportsbook.
Factors to Think About
After gaining a grasp of the numbers, totals bettors can examine a variety of factors that influence scoring. The first is, of course, the relative skills of the offenses and defenses competing against one another.
Teams with strong defenses don’t typically surrender many points. As a result, bookies work that into their total. These bookies thrive with the right PPH service.
It’s the same with two high-scoring teams. Oddsmakers factor this into their total. Totals of 50 and above are considered high in the NFL. In college football, it is common to see totals go into the 70s
when two high-scoring offenses play each other.
Another element is the weather. Scoring typically suffers when playing in chilly, wet, and rainy weather. Likewise, teams don’t have to worry about the weather when they play in a domed stadium.
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Always Check for Wind
Of the weather elements, wind is the one that will affect a college football game’s final score the most. Today’s pass-happy offensive strategies make it tough for offenses to operate in conditions with high winds.
The weather begins to affect game totals when winds gust to at least 8 miles per hour. The Under is 1587-1380 in a sample of many thousands of college football games played over the past several years. Again, these are games where the wind speed was at least 8 miles per hour.
We can boil it down even further when taking games with wind speeds at 13 miles per hour and above. In more than 700 college games over the past few years, the Under is 449-332 (57.5%).
Numbers like that make it a must – always check the wind, as well as scores, lines and odds, before betting football totals.
Interesting CFB Scenarios
It’s a given when two high-scoring college football teams play each other. The betting public loves Overs and oddsmakers know that. They shade lines as a result, but smart bettors should beware. They should also check global offshore sportsbooks for the best lines.
A dive further into the numbers reveals the following. In a sample of more than 1,500 college football games, the Under is the more profitable bet when the two opponents have scoring averages that add up to more than the oddsmakers’ total.
Look at this example. Oklahoma averages 38.2 points per game for example and the Sooners are going to play Ohio State. The Buckeyes average 41.3 a game. The two averages add up to 79.5 points. The game total is set at 71.
Over the past few years in situations like this, the Under is 898-646-28 for a winning percentage of 58.2 percent. This is another thing to keep in mind when betting football totals.
This also functions in reverse. The Over is the better wager when two college football teams’ combined scoring averages are less than the predetermined game total.
The following was taken from a sample of over 1,200 college football games with a total of 52 or higher. When the two teams playing had combined scoring averages that added up to less than 52, the final score averaged 64.2 points. The Over his 55.8 percent of the time.
